海南岛冬季雾日异常气候背景分析
Analysis of Anomalous Climatic Background of Winter Fog Days in Hainan Island
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摘要: 利用1980—2020年海南岛18个国家气象观测站的逐日地面观测数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA海温及国家气候中心气候系统监测指数集,分析了海南岛冬季雾日的气候特征及其异常年海气背景特征.结果表明:(1)海南岛冬季雾日高值区集中在北部和中部内陆,低值区分布在东南部、西南部的沿海;近40年来冬季雾日呈显著下降趋势,2000年后处在偏少的年代际背景下,冬季日平均最低气温偏高和平均风速增大是造成2000年后冬季雾日偏少的直接原因;(2)冬季雾日偏多年,西太副高年际尺度上偏大偏强偏西;南方涛动处于负位相,我国华南地区海平面气压偏高;高层海南岛及南海区域为显著的辐合运动,对应有下沉运动;低层及近地层海南岛处在异常冷高压的西北侧,受西北侧异常西南暖湿气流影响,风速较小,相对湿度略大,空气扩散条件差,有利于雾的生成和维持,偏少年的情况则相反;(3)冬季雾日与海温异常变化有着密切的关系,其中秋冬季ENSO状态、前期南海至西太暖池以及我国东部海域海温对冬季大雾天气的发生和维持具有重要的指示意义,类ENSO海温分布型、西太暖池和我国东部海域海温对冬季雾日的预兆信号分别为超前1个季、3个季和1个季.Abstract: In the report, the daily ground observation data of Hainan island 18 national meteorological observation stations, NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data, NOAA surface temperature data and climate system monitoring index set of National Climate Centre during 1980 to 2020 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of winter fog days in Hainan island and the ocean-atmosphere background characteristics in anomalous years. The results indicated that (1) the high-value areas of winter fog days in Hainan island are concentrated in the northern and central inland areas, the low-value areas are distributed over the coastal areas of southeast and southwest areas. The winter fog days show a significant decreasing trend during the past 40 years, and which is in the less period since 2000,the higher average daily minimum temperature and the increase of average wind speed in winter are the main reasons for the less fog days in winter. (2) In the years of more winter fog days, the western Pacific subtropical high in the interannual scale is bigger, stronger and more westerly; the Southern Oscillation is in negative phase, the sea level pressure in southern areas of China is higher; Hainan island and the South China Sea area show significant convergence at 200hPa, corresponding to the subsidence movement over Hainan island; In the lower and surface layers, Hainan island is located on the northwest side of the abnormally cold high pressure, and are both affected by abnormally southwest warm and wet airflow, the wind s peed are both smaller, the relative humidity is slightly larger, the diffusion condition is worse, which are conducive to the generation and maintenance of fog. In the years of less winter fog days, the situation is reversed. (3) Winter fog days are closely related to SST anomalies. The ENSO state, the prophase SST signal of the West Pacific Warm Pool, and the southeast coast of China are important to indicate the occurrence and maintenance of winter fog in Hainan island. The ENSO distribution pattern, the SST of southeast coast of China and the Western Pacific warm pool have good predictive effects on winter fog days in Hainan island, which are one season, three seasons and one season in advance respectively.